Monograph - 2021

Monograph Information

  Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes
  Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2021

  Kołowrocki Krzysztof, Poland
  Bogalecka Magdalena, Poland
  Dąbrowska Ewa, Poland
  Torbicki Mateusz, Poland

  Gdynia Maritime University, 2021

  ISBN 978-83-7421-354-7 (printed)
  e-ISBN 978-83-7421-355-4 (eBook)
  DOI: 10.26408/srsp-2021



Short-term forecasting of accidental oil spill movement in harbours


Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia, Poland, e.dabrowska(at)

DOI: 10.26408/srsp-2021-05

ABSTRACT: The general model of oil spill movement forecasting based on a probabilistic approach is proposed. A semi-Markov model of the process of changing hydro-meteorological conditions is constructed. The method of oil spill domain determination for various hydro-meteorological conditions is recom-mended. Moreover, Monte Carlo simulation procedure for predicting the oil spill domain movement is proposed. The procedure is practically applied for Gdynia and Karlskrona ports' water areas .

KEYWORDS: harbour, accident, oil spill, stochastic modelling, Monte Carlo prediction

To cite this chapter:
Dąbrowska E. 2021. Short-term forecasting of accidental oil spill movement in harbours. In K. Kołowrocki et al. (Eds.), Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes, Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2021. Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia, 59-75, doi:10.26408/srsp-2021-05.

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