Monograph - 2021
 |
Monograph Information
Title
Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes
Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2021
Editors
Kołowrocki Krzysztof, Poland
Bogalecka Magdalena, Poland
Dąbrowska Ewa, Poland
Torbicki Mateusz, Poland
Publisher
Gdynia Maritime University, 2021
ISBN 978-83-7421-354-7 (printed)
e-ISBN 978-83-7421-355-4 (eBook)
DOI: 10.26408/srsp-2021
Language
English
Licence
|
Short-term forecasting of accidental oil spill movement in harbours
DĄBROWSKA Ewa 
Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia, Poland, e.dabrowska(at)wn.umg.edu.pl
DOI: 10.26408/srsp-2021-05
ABSTRACT: The general model of oil spill movement forecasting based on a probabilistic approach is proposed.
A semi-Markov model of the process of changing hydro-meteorological conditions is constructed.
The method of oil spill domain determination for various hydro-meteorological conditions is recom-mended. Moreover, Monte Carlo simulation procedure for predicting the oil spill domain movement is proposed. The procedure is practically applied for Gdynia and Karlskrona ports' water areas
.
KEYWORDS: harbour, accident, oil spill, stochastic modelling, Monte Carlo prediction
To cite this chapter:
Dąbrowska E. 2021. Short-term forecasting of accidental oil spill movement in harbours. In K. Kołowrocki et al. (Eds.), Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes, Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2021. Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia, 59-75, doi:10.26408/srsp-2021-05.
