Monograph Information

  Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes
  Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2020

  Kołowrocki Krzysztof, Poland
  Bogalecka Magdalena, Poland
  Dąbrowska Ewa, Poland
  Torbicki Mateusz, Poland

  Gdynia Maritime University, 2020

  ISBN 978-83-7421-320-2 (printed)
  e-ISBN 978-83-7421-321-9 (eBook)
  DOI: 10.26408/srsp-2020



Probabilistic methods of risk predictions and their pragmatic applications in life cycle of complex systems


1 Federal Research Center "Computer Science and Control" of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, akostogr(at)
2 Scientific and Engineering Centre for Energy Safety, Moscow, Russia, andrey.nistratov(at)

DOI: 10.26408/srsp-2020-11

ABSTRACT: The probabilistic methods of risk predictions, focused on the prognostic modeling of complex systems, and their pragmatic applications are proposed. They are based on an implementation of the proposed interconnected ideas about system analysis in life cycle. The approach includes description of the probabilistic models, optimization methods for rationale actions and incremental algorithms for solving the problems of supporting decision-making and rationale preventive actions in uncertainty conditions. A suitability of the proposed models and methods is demonstrated by examples which cover wide reliability and safety applications for some intellectual systems, enterprises of coal company, a floating oil and gas platform, a set of manufacturing processes of gas preparation equipment, the systems of oil&gas transportation and distribution. The approach means practically proactive commitment to excellence in uncertainty conditions.

KEYWORDS: analysis, model, operation, prediction, probability, rationale, risk, system, system engineering

To cite this chapter:
Kostogryzov, A., Nistratov, A. 2020. Probabilistic methods of risk predictions and their pragmatic applications in life cycle of complex systems. In K. Kołowrocki et al. (Eds.), Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes, Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2020. Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia, 153-174, doi:10.26408/srsp-2020-11

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