Monograph


Monograph Information

Title
  Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes
  Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2020

Editors
  Kołowrocki Krzysztof, Poland
  Bogalecka Magdalena, Poland
  Dąbrowska Ewa, Poland
  Torbicki Mateusz, Poland

Publisher
  Gdynia Maritime University, 2020

  ISBN 978-83-7421-320-2 (printed)
  e-ISBN 978-83-7421-321-9 (eBook)
  DOI: 10.26408/srsp-2020

Language
  English

Licence


Modelling maritime critical infrastructure accident consequences with semi-Markov chain method

BOGALECKA Magdalena

Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia, Poland, m.bogalecka(at)wpit.umg.edu.pl

DOI: 10.26408/srsp-2020-03

ABSTRACT: The probabilistic general model of critical infrastructure accident consequences consists of three particular models of semi-Markov processes such as: the process of initiating events generated by a critical infrastructure accident, the process of environmental threats coming from released chemicals that are a result of initiating events and the process of environmental degradation as a result of environmental threats. The general model of critical infrastructure accident consequences and procedure of its application to the maritime transport critical infrastructure understood as a network of ships operating at the sea waters is presented in the research. By using the statistical data coming from sea accidents reports, the general model is applied to the identification and prediction of the environmental degradation associated with ship accidents and chemical releases within the Baltic Sea. Moreover, the proposed model is applied to estimate the environmental losses associated with these accidents and the environmental degradation in the neighborhood area.

KEYWORDS: shipping, hazardous chemical, initiating event, environmental threat, environmental degradation, cost of losses

To cite this chapter:
Bogalecka M. 2020. Modelling maritime critical infrastructure accident consequences with semi-Markov chain method. In K. Kołowrocki et al. (Eds.), Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes, Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2020. Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia, 33-50, doi:10.26408/srsp-2020-03


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